The United Opposition Is Nothing Without ODM

Even in the post-Raila Odinga era, ODM continues to tower above its coalition partners in Azimio, both in structure and influence. The smaller regional parties that orbit around ODM have failed to reassert themselves as credible alternatives or equal partners within the opposition bloc.

Kalonzo Musyoka’s latest move, attempting to control ODM through the Azimio coalition, is a desperate bid to reclaim relevance. This strategy is bound to fail. Figures like Suna East MP Junet Mohamed, who have deep roots within ODM’s machinery, are unlikely to cede control to a leader whose political base remains confined to a single region.

Internal dynamics within Azimio make it clear that ODM’s institutional strength and national reach far outweigh the fragmented influence of smaller parties like Wiper.

History offers a telling precedent. In 2007, Kalonzo was the first to exit ODM after losing the party’s internal primaries to Raila Odinga. Rather than face an internal contest, he chose to walk away with ODM-Kenya, claiming he was the more popular leader. The subsequent elections in 2013, 2017, and 2022 proved otherwise. Raila emerged as the national opposition figure, while Kalonzo’s support was decisively confined to Ukambani. Two decades later, Wiper, a party as old as ODM, has failed to expand beyond its regional stronghold.

Wiper’s stagnation is proof that today in Kenya’s politics, small regional parties have reached their limit. Their continued existence fragments the opposition, dilutes national messaging, and weakens the collective bargaining power against the ruling establishment. Time has come for these parties to make a strategic choice to dissolve and merge into larger, nationally viable formations.

ODM, with over 80 Members of Parliament, remains the backbone of the opposition. It is illogical for such a dominant party to be led or dictated to by smaller affiliates. The idea that Wiper, with its limited reach, could steer the direction of a coalition anchored by ODM defies political logic.

If Kalonzo truly believes in a united opposition, the most pragmatic step would be to dissolve Wiper and return fully to ODM, contributing to a stronger, more cohesive political front.

Opposition politics must evolve beyond regional calculations and personality-driven alliances. The future belongs to broad-based, ideologically coherent parties capable of mobilizing national support.

ODM has proven its resilience and reach; the smaller parties must now decide whether to remain regional footnotes or join the larger movement shaping Kenya’s political destiny.