By Nyanza Wire 
There is usually this lie peddled by the tribalists that President Moi could have been removed in 1992 if Matiba and Kibaki united. The numbers tell a different story…
Ahead of 1992, the unity of the opposition was largely built by and around Jaramogi Oginga Odinga. In politics, never underrate the ‘substructure’. Never take for granted the people who’ve done the heavy-lifting.
Jaramogi had opposed Moi much longer and had galvanized the people. Naturally, he should have been the joint candidate of the opposition.
Furthermore, Jaramogi had in several occasions rejected a coalition with Moi, which was preferred by the larger section of the Luo community; and which the Kalenjin nation had been pursuing desperately and relentlessly, for almost a decade.
Jaramogi stayed in opposition because the Orengos of this world told him that the Kikuyus would back him. That they had now changed from the toxicity of the 19760s and 1970s.
That delusion was short-lived.
The entry of Matiba in opposition after losing plot in the post-1988 polls came with a new demand that Jaramogi had to retire from politics and endorse him. A Johnny-come-lately like Gachagua was now demanding the driver’s seat. He now started throwing Kikuyu numbers as the only thing that mattered.
The loss to Moi in 1992 was the result of the betrayal of Jaramogi Oginga Odinga, who, though aware he’d not win, took away more than 900,000 votes.
The loss to Moi was a rejection of the arrogance of the Kikuyu in the then opposition — the sort of arrogance that has not stopped till today.
Had Jaramogi backed Moi in 1992, which was what a number of Luo leaders had pursued; Moi would have decisively won the election with 2.9 million votes, with the Luo returning to government for the first time since the 1966 misadventure.
The Matiba-Kibaki numbers —though polled above a million — now achieved nothing on their own!
Even if the two had united in a pure GEMA vote bloc, it still would have achieved nothing!
This is the reality facing the Kikuyu. You cannot fight the Luo and the Kalenjin at the same time. These are two big tribes, very unafraid of your numbers! This was the gamble in 1992 and it is the gamble today. The results may turn out the same!