Gachagua’s Ethnic Vote Trap

Rigathi Gachagua has quietly appointed himself the judge of Kenya’s opposition — and the rules he’s set are unfair. He says the next opposition leader should be chosen based on ethnic votes. On the surface, this might look like smart politics. In reality, it’s a trap — one designed so that only he can win.

Gachagua knows the truth: if leadership were based on experience, credibility, vision, or the ability to unite diverse communities, he would likely lose. Other leaders, like Kalonzo Musyoka, Martha Karua, Fred Matiang’i, and others, have built support across regions and generations. Their strength lies in winning votes from multiple communities, not just their own. But under Gachagua’s system, all of that counts for nothing. Only loyalty to one’s ethnic base matters.

By setting the standard this way, Gachagua guarantees an advantage. He has the most consolidated ethnic support in the opposition, which means the “test” points straight to him. It is clever politics — but it is also deeply dangerous. It shrinks the opposition into ethnic silos, rewards division over vision, and repeats the same politics that have held Kenya back for decades.

The bigger question is whether other opposition leaders will accept this rigged system, or stand up for leadership based on ideas, competence, and national unity. Kenya does not need leaders chosen by ethnic arithmetic. It needs leaders chosen by the people — leaders who can unite, inspire, and lead the country forward.

Rigging the opposition through ethnic loyalty is not strategy; it is a trap. And the country deserves better.